Attitudes and opinions are not statics. The policy arena is never static.
Too many lobbyists hope that what was acceptable 5, 10 or 20 years ago will be okay today. What was considered unthinkable ten years ago, and sometimes even one, may be considered normal and become policy and law today.
How the Unthinkable Becomes Mainstream – The Overton Window
This is known as the Overton Window. Ideas move in a progression: unthinkable -} radical -} acceptable, -} sensible -} popular -} policy.
In every policy area I’ve worked on, what was once considered unthinkable has flipped and become law.
Example 1: Risk Management
One of the first pieces of legislation I worked on was air pollution legislation in 1997. At the time, there was a conscious public policy decision to make a trade-off between levels of air pollution and the human, public health and environmental effects and the corresponding economic impacts of reaching certain air pollution standards. Today, the Commission has a ‘zero pollution agenda, taking zero to mean 0. The core basis of risk management seems to be a no or ultra-low-risk position. It is a position supported by most Member States and MEPs.
Example 2: Fisheries
In fisheries, limiting discards was seen by most governments, including the Commission, as unthinkable. Reaching a target for fish stocks known as Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) was viewed for a long time as crazy talk. Now they are both in law.
You need to keep your eyes open for the window of change. You can use it to bring about change or to keep an eye to alert your clients who prefer the status quo. And, when change shifts from sensible to popular, the likelihood of stopping change is low.
How many people need to back change
Change does not happen because of a conspiracy or an act of god. it is just that opinions are not static. Ideas that were considered bonkers will become mainstream. And, it does not take that many people to back the idea for it to become mainstream. Estimates range from 10-25% of the population.
You just need to get a few people to change to ensure change to happen. In European Public Policymaking that’s important. As many key decisions are made by a group of around 200-250 people (officials, politicians, journalists, academics, industry and NGO leaders), the presence, or appearance, of energetic public support for change is often enough to accelerate change.
Source: See Great Mental Models, Vol.3Farnham Street, p.148