Day: 27 January 2026

This idea requires we think ahead, and to think not just about our actions and their immediate impacts, but the subsequent effects of those actions. Those second- and third-order impacts can be disastrous. Throughout my 30 years, I have witnessed and learned of many examples of the “Law of Unintended Consequences”. A CEO who asked … Read more

This is about trying to estimate, using some math and logic, the likelihood of any specific outcome coming to pass. It is useful in lobbying. It can help estimate the likelihood of success and recommend actions to increase that positive outcome. I use  this mental model for estimating: Getting the proposal you want Securing the … Read more