Why Did Cod in the Baltic Grow Yet Collapse in the North Sea

Swim to the Baltic

Last night I landed up being very distracted.  The European Commission is recommending the TAC for western Baltic cod and to increase by 7% to 65,934 tonnes.

Surely, this was a mistake. In 2004, ICES, the scientists European and other governments ask to recommend how many fish can be caught from the sea, came up with a call for large cuts and a catch of less than 13,000 tonnes of cod.

Fisheries Ministers ignored the experts advice and backed a quota of 45,400 tonnes. And, ICES then had to report that actual landings were more like 68,000 tonnes.

Baltic Fishing Ministers Learn Long Term Perspective

But, over time something strange happened to the fishing ministers of the Baltic Sea. In 2009, they started following the advice of ICES.  In 2009, fishing ministers recommended that less than 48,600 tonnes of cod be caught. Ministers backed a quota of 49,380 tonnes, and 48,000 was landed!

Over time, the fishing Ministers have, more or less, followed the advice of the scientists. And, slowly but surely, cod stocks have grown and grown.

That Much Is Possible!

There is a way to go to when cod quotas will be back to the 1987 recommendation of 245,000 tonnes. But, cod seem to follow the law of compound interest, and could continue to grow.

Now, the fishing ministers of the Baltic now face a very short October fisheries council. I can’t think the whole affair takes more than an hour of rubber stamping the experts’ recommendations.

Short Sighted North Sea Politicians

On the other hand, the Baltic long-term perspective is not reflected by the story of cod in the North Sea.

The Unwise Monkeys?

In 2004, ICES recommended no cod be caught from the North Sea. Fishing Ministers ignored them and allowed a catch of 27,300 tonnes. From 2001 to 2007 the recommended catch as o and fishing ministers ignored scientific advice and listed to rigorous industry lobbying and set quotas from 48,600 (2001) to  20,000 tonnes (2011).

Things got so bad, and the health of the stock so depleted and subject to huge levels of often deliberate discarding, that in 2013 fishing ministers managed to set a catch limit of 26,500 tonnes which was similar to the recommended less than 25,441 tonnes.

Cod Migrating to Sweden

If cod could migrate, I guess the North Sea cod would be swimming as hard as they could to the Baltic.

What Can Happen In 10 years

In 2004, the North Sea was recommended to have no catch of cod and this was ignored and a quota of 27,300 tonnes was set. In 2013, a recommendation of 25,441 was proposed and 26,500 was set.

In the Baltic in 2004, things were not good. Cod catches in the eastern Baltic were recommend to be less than 13,000 tonnes. Ministers ignored it and called for catches to be 45,400 tonnes. But, over then net few years Ministers realised even they could not defy the laws of nature (even politicians are fallible) took a recommended catch of 65,900 tonnes and set that at 68,700 tonnes.

In 1987, the North Sea saw landings of 167,000 tonnes of cod, the Baltic Sea 207,000 tonnes.

The Baltic Sea is on the way to reaching the mid 1980s catch levels. The North Sea is not.

Follow the System

The reasons for this turn around are simple. Baltic fishing ministers went cold turkey. They listened to evidence and ignored the special pleading of fishermen who year on year contended that the Baltic was awash with cod. Baltic Ministers decided to clamp down on illegal fishing and took practical steps to deal with discards.

Has Anyone Been Fired?

Ministers from the North Sea could well copy the “system”. It works.

Any CEO who showed similar economic performance to the North Sea cod industry would be fired on the spot. This makes the performance of bankrupt banks look credible. Throwing away such a valuable and potentially valuable economic resource is economic stupidity. It is perplexing to understand why those responsible for such ineptitude are still at the helm.