Fish Farming Now Bigger Business Than Wild Caught Fish

Bloomberg dropped the news today.

“For the first time, the world is eating more fish from farms than from the open sea, spurring billions of dollars of takeovers as one of the largest food companies seeks to capitalize on rising demand.”

We are now eating more farmed bred fish than wild caught fish.

 

The Laws of Supply & Demand: You Can’t Avoid Them

There are many reasons for this shift. The basic reason is that the demand for fish out-strips supply. Given that the supply of wild caught fish is not able to fill the gap – and too often is facing declining supply –  companies are stepping in and filling the gap with farmed fish.

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Innovation’s Winners & Losers

The long-term bets being taken by trading houses like Cargill and Mitsubishi Corp. show the supply and demand for farmed fish is likely set to grow and grow. Industrial cattle, poultry and pig farms are going to be joined by industrial fish farms.

And, some day soon, the fish farm entrepreneurs will work out how to farm cod,blue fin tuna, and other sought after fish. They will  produce them on a large scale. These entrepreneurs will undercut the fishermen, and the fishermen will see their markets slowly evaporate.

 

Why Value Models Explain Why Labour Lost in May 2015

I recommend the excellent piece by Jon Cruddas MP in the New Statesman on why Labour lost the May 2015 General Election.

It draws on polling and Value Model Analysis. I have written before about the use of using Value Models before.

Labour is now only ahead in the Pioneer class. The Conservatives dominate the Prospector class and lead amongst Settlers.

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Labour is the preserve of the liberal progressive Pioneers.  But, even here, the Conservatives are co-opting the language of fairness and policies on higher wages, child care, and the NHS.

As Jon Cruddas concludes:

“In contrast Labour is becoming dangerously out of touch with the electorate and as of now appears unwilling to recognise its predicament. Labour’s historical task is to represent the interests of working people in government. It means listening to the people, trusting their judgment, letting them decide the destiny of their country. And it means recognising when we got it wrong and learning from our failure.”

Labour faces structural challenges to their future existence.  They need to speak to their key electoral bases. In May 2015 the wing agenda did not persuade those key camps.

The upcoming loss of Trade Union funding will speed up the need to face those challenges.

I doubt the Party will be brave enough to make the changes it needs to.

Update

Chris Rose’s thoughtful and in-depth piece,  that delves deeper into the Values analysis, is well worth reading

Why did Labour lose?

New Statesman
12 August 2015

I recommend the excellent piece by Jon Cruddas MP in the New Statesman on why Labour lost the May 2015 General Election.

It draws on polling and Value Model Analysis. I have written before about the use of using Value Models before.

Labour is now only ahead in the Pioneer class. The Conservatives dominate the Prospector class and lead amongst Settlers.

Screen Shot 2015-08-18 at 12.33.48

 

Labour is the preserve of the liberal progressive Pioneers.  But, even here, the Conservatives are co-opting the language of fairness and policies on higher wages, child care, and the NHS.

As Jon Cruddas concludes:

“In contrast Labour is becoming dangerously out of touch with the electorate and as of now appears unwilling to recognise its predicament. Labour’s historical task is to represent the interests of working people in government. It means listening to the people, trusting their judgment, letting them decide the destiny of their country. And it means recognising when we got it wrong and learning from our failure.”

Labour faces structural challenges to their future existence.  They need to speak to their key electoral bases. In May 2015 the wing agenda did not persuade those key camps.

The upcoming loss of Trade Union funding will speed up the need to face those challenges.

I doubt the Party will be brave enough to make the changes it needs to.

 

Update

Chris Rose’s thoughtful and in-depth piece,  that delves deeper into the Values analysis, is well worth reading.

How A Kiwi Saved His Country Going Broke

New Zealand is a very prosperous, free, and content country. As recently as the 1980s, it was not.  Radical free market reforms helped make it a better place. And, those changes were introduced by a Labour government.

I have been interested in how these radical reforms happened. Why was there no rioting in the streets? A friend who lived there at the time explained “Douglas hit everyone the same. The privileged felt the pain as well”.

I have wanted to find out how this transformation happened.  Bill Freeza has filled the gap with “New Zealand’s Far-Reaching Reforms: A Case Study on How to Save Democracy from Itself“.  Freeza provides a very helpful guide for any politician who wants to repeat the New Zealand experience. He interviewed the two main architects of the reform, Sir Roger Douglas, the Labour Finance minister, and his National Party successor, Ruth Richardson.

 

Cold Turkey 

The changes Douglas, the Labour Party’s Finance Minister introduced, were radical:

“Agricultural subsidies were terminated. Protectionism was vastly reduced. Capital controls were removed. Marginal income tax rates were dramatically cut and the tax base was widened through the introduction of a comprehensive consumption tax. Capital gains taxes and estate taxes were eliminated. Foreign exchange controls were removed and the kiwi was allowed to float.”

The changes could have been more radical. Douglas tried to introduce a simple flat tax regime, 23 percent on income from all sources, no deductions, but that was a step too far for his Labour Party colleagues.

 

Fixing the Problem

As Freeza observes:

The sad truth is that most majoritarian democracies reward politicians with the prize they covet most—winning the next election—not for exhibiting universally admired virtues or even serving the public good. Instead, they are rewarded for dispensing largess to their particular constituents, and doing so in a way that disguises the costs not only to others but to those constituents and sometimes even themselves. This is the problem that New Zealand fixed.”

The system that Douglas and Richardson  has hard wired into the system limits to backsliding and can-kicking that infect politicians everywhere.

 

If You Want To Copy, Here is What You Can Do

 

The book ends with several good recommendations for any government looking to introduce Douglas and Richardson plan:

  1. Demand honest accounting, the bedrock of good governance

 

  1. Encourage transparency between parties, and between the government and the people

 

  1. Create stability through sound money and explicit monetary policy

 

  1. Use performance management based civil service reform to deliver results

 

  1. Leverage private-sector labor reforms to open the economy

 

  1. Never let a crisis go to waste

 

  1. Comprehensive reform trumps piecemeal reform

 

  1. Reforms must be evenhanded

 

  1. Flood the zone to create too many moving targets to effectively oppose

 

  1. Speed is of the essence

 

  1. Resolve is essential

 

  1. To win requires managing the narrative

 

  1. Consult widely to get input and buy-in

 

  1. Confidence in leaders rests on their own visible relaxed composure

 

  1. Never sell the public short

 

  1. Institutional disciplines must be established that outlive the reformers

 

I hope, that one day, my own Party, the UK Labour Party, can copy the New Zealand experiment when it is next in government. Whilst, today at least that seems fanciful, this is a book that any politician who wants to bring long term prosperity to their country should read.